Economic Impact Report
Jubail Industrial City — Phase Initial · Registry: registry-jubail-v3
State A sourced from Feedstock Study (nine-stream feedstock profile). State B sourced from Proposal EIR Input Block. Inherited warnings: WARN-01 (FWDC), WARN-02 (feedstock volume), WARN-03 (Nitaqat), WARN-08 (V₂O₅), WARN-09 (fly ash hazardous).
Nine streams. Two structural gaps closed simultaneously. The same 100 TPD Phase Initial deployment that addresses 35,000 tpy toward Saudi Arabia's MWAN 2035 mandate also initiates the Kingdom's first domestic REE and critical minerals recovery from circular feedstock — at zero Authority capital, generating a net surplus from Year 2 onward.
Decision Summary
Options B and B+Exogenesis carry no Processing Service Fee. Exogenesis not applicable for Jubail Phase Initial. Option A-IC models in-country premium on REE, V₂O₅, and advanced materials streams — see Section 5.
| Parameter | State A — Current System | State B — Option A (ACM) |
|---|---|---|
| Annual disposal cost | Ongoing disposal spend — escalating annually ESTIMATED | Processing Service (Ijarah) — Year 1 only net outflow |
| Capital obligation | Ongoing disposal spend (no asset created) | Zero LOCKED |
| Year 1 net | Disposal cost — no manufactured output, no asset | Processing Service paid — pre-royalty period (13 months from COD) |
| Year 2+ net | Disposal cost escalating at ~2.5%/yr | Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service — net surplus position |
| Year 30 net | Disposal cost ~2× Year 1 (compound escalation) | Revenue Share ~2.9× Year 2 (compound escalator) |
| REE / critical minerals | None — landfilled in ash | Ce, La, Nd, Y, Li, Co, V₂O₅ — RC4 manufactured outputs |
| MWAN contribution | None | 35,000 tpy toward 2035 mandate ESTIMATED |
| Carbon avoidance | 0 tCO₂e/yr | 133,225 tCO₂e/yr toward SGI ESTIMATED |
| Employment | No new in-Kingdom FTE | 47 direct FTE + 141 indirect ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled |
- Compresses MWAN compliance contribution by 12 months
- Delays Saudi Arabia's domestic REE production by 12 months — against Ma'aden's 2027 critical minerals processing buildout target
- Forfeits one full year of Revenue Share that would have commenced at Month 14
State A — Current System Baseline
Nine-Stream Cost Structure All ESTIMATED
- SIRC subsidiary residuals: SAR 140–200/ton — RCJY landfill gate rate
- WtE ash (Veolia/RCJY): SAR 150–250/ton — ash is a disposal liability for the JV
- ELT / tires: SAR 200–400/ton equivalent — export logistics + compliance
- Contaminated recycling: SAR 140–180/ton — no incumbent processor
- Petcoke / coal ash: SAR 180–280/ton — industrial waste classification
- Blended FWDC: SAR 280/ton · $74.67/ton ESTIMATED ⚠ WARN-01
State A Cost Trajectory
At 2.5%/yr from SAR 280/ton base:
State B — Deployment Baseline
From Proposal EIR Input Block. No independent derivation.
| Term | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Volume | 35,000 tpy (100 TPD × 350 days) | LOCKED |
| Processing Service escalator | 2.5%/yr | LOCKED |
| Revenue Share base | 120% of Year 1 Processing Service | LOCKED |
| Revenue Share escalator | +1 percentage point/yr | LOCKED |
| Revenue Share lag | 13 months rolling from corresponding fee payment | ALWAYS |
| T0 | Q4 2026 · Rabi' II 1448 AH | ESTIMATED |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2029 · Sha'ban 1450 AH | ESTIMATED |
| First Revenue Share | July 2029 · Rajab 1451 AH | DERIVED |
Delta Analysis
Year 1: Authority pays Processing Service. Receives zero Revenue Share. Net: outflow only.
Month 14 onward: Revenue Share commences on a rolling monthly basis, 13 months after each corresponding Processing Service payment. Independent transaction.
Steady state Year 2+: Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service — net surplus position per ton processed.
30-Year Phase Delta Option A · Phase Initial · ESTIMATED
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2+ | Year 10 | Year 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State A disposal position | Disposal cost — escalating | +2.5% | +25% vs Year 1 | +110% vs Year 1 |
| Revenue Share received | SAR 0 (pre-royalty) | Commences Month 14 | +compound escalator | ~2.9× Year 2 base |
| Net Authority position | Processing Service outflow only | Net surplus | Growing surplus | Significant surplus |
| Cumulative Revenue Share (Year 2–30) | SAR 537,300,000 ESTIMATED | |||
No net column combines Processing Service and Revenue Share — independent transactions per IFRS.
Phase Delta Map
Map initialising — requires Google Maps API key
Critical Minerals Delta
This section is conditional on ICO buyer LOI confirmation. WARN-05 applies. Not incorporated into Option A base case. WARN-05
State A — No ACM
- Veolia Jubail 2 ash stream continues as disposal liability
- No REE recovery from WtE ash
- Saudi Arabia continues importing 100% of REE processing
- Petcoke ash vanadium continues to be landfilled
- Kingdom's critical minerals buildout relies entirely on primary mining and overseas acquisitions
State B — With ACM
- WtE ash REE stream (Ma'aden): Saudi Arabia's first domestic circular-source REE processing. In-country premium +15% ESTIMATED (import substitution + IKTVA). Ma'aden $110B plan requires domestic REE feedstock. PIF owns both SIRC and Manara Minerals.
- Petcoke ash V₂O₅ (Aramco VRFB chain): Aramco petcoke → vanadium-bearing ash → Carbotura V₂O₅ → Aramco VRFB supply chain. Aramco-BYD JDA (April 2025) = structural vanadium demand. WARN-08
System-Level Impact
Employment ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled
| Category | Phase Initial | Phase Medium | Phase Expanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct FTE (in-Kingdom) | 47 | 94 | 141 |
| Indirect | 141 | 282 | 423 |
| National Content (IKTVA proxy) | 62% ESTIMATED | — | — |
Direct FTE: Subject to Nitaqat compliance. In-Kingdom composition confirmed at Feasibility Study with HRSD (WARN-03).
Environmental Delta
| Metric | State A | State B — Phase Initial |
|---|---|---|
| Diversion from landfill | ~10% of addressable | ~100% Phase Initial volume |
| Carbon avoidance | 0 | 133,225 tCO₂e/yr ESTIMATED |
| SGI contribution | None | 133,225 tCO₂e/yr toward 278M tCO₂e national target |
| MWAN compliance | None | 35,000 tpy toward 2035 mandate |
| Critical minerals produced | None | REE suite + Li + Co + V₂O₅ + Ga |
No-Fallback: Critical Minerals Dimension
If ACM is not deployed, the Veolia Jubail 2 ash stream continues as a disposal liability with no REE recovery. Saudi Arabia continues to import 100% of REE processing. Petcoke ash vanadium continues to be landfilled. The Kingdom's critical minerals buildout proceeds without a domestic circular-source processing pathway — reliant entirely on primary mining and overseas acquisitions.
Risk and Sensitivity
Net Authority Year 2+ surplus is independent of FWDC. The Revenue Share and Processing Service are contractual fixed rates — net surplus position holds regardless of whether actual disposal cost is SAR 200/ton or SAR 360/ton.
| # | Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDC lower than estimated | Net Year 2+ surplus is independent of FWDC — Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service regardless |
| 2 | WtE ash offtake agreement timeline | Parallel-track with SIRC CSA — WARN-06 |
| 3 | V₂O₅ concentration lower than viable | WARN-08 — engineering confirmation required before V₂O₅ included in any client document |
| 4 | WtE fly ash hazardous classification | Restricts to GEMS hazardous license — WARN-09. Bottom ash is non-hazardous starting point |
| 5 | REE buyer LOI timing | WARN-05 — Option A base case does not require REE confirmation |
| 6 | Nitaqat compliance | Feasibility Study with HRSD resolves — WARN-03 |
| 7 | RCJY site timeline | Early RCJY Business Center engagement; parallel to CSA |
| 8 | SAR/USD currency | Pegged at 3.75 — minimal risk VERIFIED |
Net Effects Summary
Fiscal (Option A)
Year 1: Processing Service outflow only (pre-royalty 13-month period). Year 2+: Net surplus position. Growing surplus through Year 30 as Revenue Share escalator exceeds Processing Service escalator.
Critical Minerals (Option A-IC)
REE from WtE ash + V₂O₅ from petcoke ash + Ga/advanced materials = additional in-country premium revenue with Authority participation at negotiated rate. ESTIMATED — pending LOI
Regional Economic
47 direct FTE · 141 indirect · 62% IKTVA · SAR 185M annual economic impact All ESTIMATED
Environmental
35,000 tpy diverted · 133,225 tCO₂e/yr · SGI contribution · MWAN compliance progress
Structural
Saudi Arabia's first circular-source domestic REE processing. V₂O₅ recovery from Aramco petcoke ash. Veolia WtE ash converted from disposal liability to critical minerals feedstock. SIRC subsidiary residuals converted from disposal cost to RC3+ manufactured output.