In-Country Off-take Study
Jubail Industrial City — Phase Initial · Registry: registry-jubail-v3
Three Saudi institutional anchor buyers — Ma'aden (REE suite from WtE ash), Saudi Aramco VRFB chain (Vanadium V₂O₅ from petcoke ash), and NEOM OXAGON (Neodymium, Gallium, Carbon Fiber Precursor) — represent an in-country off-take pathway for ACM's highest-value outputs: critical minerals and REE that Saudi Arabia currently imports 100% of, produced from waste streams that currently go to landfill.
What This Means
- Saudi Arabia imports 100% of its REE separation and processing capacity. China controls 90% of global REE refining. ACM processing WtE ash produces Cerium, Lanthanum, Neodymium, and Yttrium (all RC4) — the Kingdom's first domestic REE output from circular feedstock.
- Saudi Aramco's petcoke ash contains commercially recoverable vanadium. ACM recovering V₂O₅ feeds directly into Aramco's Vanadium Redox Flow Battery supply chain for Saudi Arabia's 110 GW renewable energy storage program. Aramco's petcoke generates the feedstock; Aramco buys the processed output. WARN-08
- Ma'aden announced a $110 billion investment plan at the Future Minerals Forum (January 2026) targeting top-three global mining status. That plan requires processed REE and critical mineral feedstock. Carbotura provides it from Jubail WtE ash — no mining required.
- PIF bilateral alignment: PIF owns both SIRC (Carbotura's CSA counterparty) and Manara Minerals (the Ma'aden JV). The same sovereign entity that signs the CSA is the beneficial owner of the primary REE buyer — an integrated circular economy position unique to the Saudi engagement.
- Neodymium from WtE ash feeds permanent magnet supply for NEOM's EV and wind turbine manufacturing mandate. Gallium from petcoke ash feeds OXAGON's semiconductor manufacturing. Both are currently import-dependent.
RevCon™ Output Baseline
All yields from the Circular Materials Catalog (CMC) reference — 100 TPD, RC3 baseline, 350 operating days. Design-basis estimates. Not an offer.
Critical Minerals and REE (from ash streams, Phase Initial)
| Product | RevCon | Stream | Design-basis tpy ESTIMATED | Export Ref. $/kg | Annual Value ESTIMATED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neodymium oxide | RC4 MTL-018 | WtE ash | 12 | $60–80 | $720K–$960K |
| Cerium oxide | RC4 MTL-016 | WtE ash | 48 | $2–4 | $96K–$192K |
| Lanthanum oxide | RC4 MTL-017 | WtE ash | 35 | $2–3 | $70K–$105K |
| Yttrium oxide | RC4 MTL-019 | WtE ash | 8 | $3–5 | $24K–$40K |
| Lithium Carbonate | RC4 MTL-044 | WtE ash | 22 | $10–14 | $220K–$308K |
| Cobalt Sulfate | RC4 MTL-046 | WtE ash | 15 | $12–18 | $180K–$270K |
| Vanadium V₂O₅ WARN-08 | Outside RevCon Ref. | Petcoke ash | TBD | $8–12 | TBD |
| Gallium metal | RC4 MTL-042 | Petcoke/coal ash | 0.8 | $220–350 | $176K–$280K |
Note: REE and critical mineral volumes are modest at Phase Initial (100 TPD). Phase Medium (200 TPD) doubles these figures. V₂O₅ volumes depend on vanadium concentration analysis (WARN-08).
Anchor Buyer Profiles
Ma'aden — Saudi Arabian Mining Company
Riyadh HQ · ~65% PIF-ownedWhy Ma'aden
Saudi Arabian Mining Company (~65% PIF-owned) announced a $110 billion investment plan at the Future Minerals Forum in January 2026, targeting top-three global mining company status. The plan includes REE processing and battery materials as a core focus.
The critical gap Ma'aden cannot fill from primary mining alone: REE deposits in the Arabian Shield require multi-year exploration, permitting, and mine development. Carbotura's circular-source REE from WtE ash provides processed REE immediately from existing waste infrastructure — no new mines, no multi-year development timeline.
PIF Bilateral Alignment
PIF owns SIRC (Carbotura CSA counterparty). PIF owns Manara Minerals (Ma'aden JV). The same sovereign entity that signs the CSA is the beneficial owner of the primary buyer. This is not an arm's-length off-take negotiation — it is a PIF-level circular economy investment where the same principal captures value on both the manufacturing side and the off-take side.
Products
Neodymium oxide (RC4 — highest value REE for permanent magnets) · Cerium oxide · Lanthanum oxide · Yttrium oxide · Lithium Carbonate · Cobalt Sulfate
Confirmation Pathway
SIRC introduction → Ma'aden procurement and battery materials division engagement → specification review → LOI. Estimated timeline from T0: 6–12 months. Priority sequence: fastest path — PIF alignment, clear need, no engineering risk.
Saudi Aramco + Aramco-BYD JV (VRFB Supply Chain)
Dhahran HQ / Ras TanuraThe Aramco Circular Loop
- Aramco produces petcoke as a refinery by-product
- Petcoke is burned in RCJY industrial boilers
- Vanadium-bearing ash is generated
- Carbotura recovers V₂O₅
- V₂O₅ feeds into Aramco's Vanadium Redox Flow Battery supply chain
- VRFB storage supports Saudi Arabia's 110 GW renewable energy program
Aramco's own waste product → Aramco's own energy storage supply chain.
Demand Anchor
Aramco and BYD signed a Joint Development Agreement in April 2025 on EV efficiency and supply chain collaboration. Saudi Arabia's 110 GW renewable energy target requires grid-scale storage. VRFBs are a leading technology for this application. V₂O₅ is the active material in every VRFB cell.
Engineering confirmation of petcoke ash vanadium concentration required before Aramco VRFB engagement. V₂O₅ output is outside standard RevCon Reference. Must be resolved before V₂O₅ is included in any client-facing figures or procurement conversations.
Also from Petcoke Ash
Nickel (RC2–RC3) · Gallium (RC4) · Germanium (RC4) — supply chain inputs for Aramco's advanced materials and semiconductor programs.
Confirmation Pathway
Aramco IKTVA supplier development + SATC technology arm engagement + petcoke ash analysis to confirm V₂O₅ concentration → LOI. Engineering confirmation (WARN-08) must precede procurement engagement.
NEOM OXAGON — Advanced Manufacturing City
Red Sea coast · NEOM Company (PIF Direct)OXAGON's Mandate
OXAGON is NEOM's advanced industrial and manufacturing city — the correct procurement entity for NEOM in-country off-take. OXAGON's mandate is to supply advanced manufactured materials to its industrial tenants.
Products for OXAGON
- Neodymium oxide (RC4, MTL-018) from WtE ash
- Nd is the primary REE in NdFeB permanent magnets — used in every EV motor and every direct-drive wind turbine. NEOM's offshore wind program and EV logistics fleet create structural Neodymium demand. Saudi Arabia currently imports all Neodymium.
- Gallium (RC4, MTL-042) from petcoke ash
- Gallium is a semiconductor precursor — GaAs and GaN compound semiconductors. OXAGON's electronics and photonics manufacturing tenants require Gallium. China controls ~95% of global Gallium production. Saudi Arabia has zero domestic Gallium supply.
- Carbon Fiber Precursor (RC4, CRB-009) from ASR
- OXAGON's composite materials manufacturing and aerospace/advanced automotive supply chain.
- Graphene Oxide (RC4, CRB-010)
- OXAGON advanced materials — energy storage, composites, filtration.
Confirmation Pathway
OXAGON industrial procurement office engagement → specification review → preferred supplier agreement. Timeline: 12–18 months from T0.
Buyer Map
Map initialising — requires Google Maps API key
National Content and Regulatory Alignment
IKTVA
Institutional buyers (Aramco, Ma'aden, SABIC) receive IKTVA scoring credit for domestic procurement from Saudi-based manufacturers. ACM operating in RCJY territory = Saudi-based manufacturer. REE, V₂O₅, and advanced materials sourced from ACM qualify for IKTVA credit for the buyer — a procurement incentive independent of price.
Saudi Critical Minerals Strategy
Saudi Arabia's National Minerals Program, the Future Minerals Forum mandate, and the Saudi-US Mineral Cooperation framework all prioritize domestic critical minerals processing. ACM producing REE and V₂O₅ from ash is directly aligned — production without mining, from existing waste infrastructure.
Vision 2030 Alignment
Saudi Green Initiative · NIDLP · Mubadara · In-Kingdom Manufacturing · IKTVA · National Minerals Program · Giga-Project supply chain localization
Confirmation Pathway
- LOI from 2 anchor buyers covering ≥ 10,000 tpy or ≥ $5M annual value
- At least one critical minerals buyer (Ma'aden or Aramco) plus one carbon/materials buyer
- Engineering confirmation of V₂O₅ (WARN-08) required before Aramco vanadium engagement
Priority Sequence
Risk and Sensitivity
| # | Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | V₂O₅ concentration below commercial threshold | WARN-08 — resolve before Aramco engagement. Bottom ash REE path not dependent. |
| 2 | REE spec mismatch (Ma'aden processing requirements) | Sample protocol before LOI. ACM output specification sheet. |
| 3 | Gallium volume too small at Phase Initial | Phase Medium doubles volume. Gallium is medium-term, not Phase Initial critical path. |
| 4 | Ma'aden timeline longer than critical path | Option A base case does not require Ma'aden LOI — A-IC is additive election. |
| 5 | WtE fly ash hazardous classification | Process bottom ash first — non-hazardous. Fly ash adds volume once GEMS hazardous permit confirmed. WARN-09 |
| 6 | IKTVA scoring revision | IKTVA premium is additive; base product economics hold without it. |
In-Country Premium Sensitivity Note: Critical minerals volumes at Phase Initial are modest. Option A-IC strategic value is primarily the alignment signal — confirming Ma'aden and Aramco as off-take partners carries strategic weight beyond the Phase Initial revenue contribution. Option A-IC scales materially at Phase Medium (200 TPD) and Phase Expanded (300 TPD).