Executive Brief
Jubail Industrial City — Phase Initial · Registry: registry-jubail-v3
Nine material streams. Two structural gaps closed simultaneously. One action required by Q4 2026.
Opening
Jubail Industrial City generates an estimated 450 TPD across nine material streams currently managed through disposal — MSW residuals, End-of-Life Tires, wastewater sludge, WtE ash, petcoke/coal ash, contaminated recycling, Automotive Shredder Residue, commercial waste, and C&D fluff. Two structural gaps define this engagement.
MWAN Mandate
85% industrial diversion from landfill by 2035, against a national industrial treatment capacity of approximately 1.1 TPD.
Saudi Arabia's Critical Minerals Gap
The Kingdom imports 100% of its REE separation and processing capacity, while the Veolia RCJY Jubail 2 WtE facility produces 75–86 TPD of ash — containing Cerium, Lanthanum, Neodymium, Yttrium, Lithium, and Cobalt — that currently has no disposition.
Carbotura Phase Initial (100 TPD, Q2 2029 COD) closes both gaps simultaneously.
The Decision
Options B and B+Exogenesis (zero Processing Service Fee, different royalty mechanics) and Option A-IC (in-country premium participation on REE/V₂O₅ sales to Ma'aden and Aramco) are described in the Proposal.
The Circular Supply Agreement authorises Carbotura to operate an Advanced Circular Manufacturing centre at RCJY Jubail IC Phase II, processing Phase Initial feedstock from nine material streams. The CSA is structured as:
- Processing Service (Ijarah): Authority pays for a manufacturing and processing service per ton processed
- Manufactured Goods Revenue Share (Musharakah): Authority receives a share of manufactured output revenue, on a rolling monthly basis, 13 months after each corresponding Processing Service payment
These are two independent transactions. They must not be combined, netted, or described as components of a single return.
The WtE Ash Dimension
The Veolia RCJY Jubail 2 WtE JV (121,000 tpy input) produces ash that is currently a disposal liability. A separate ash offtake agreement with Veolia/RCJY WARN-06 enables Carbotura to process this ash for REE, Lithium, Cobalt, and metals recovery. Saudi Arabia has no domestic REE processing. Ma'aden's $110B investment plan (Future Minerals Forum, January 2026) requires processed REE feedstock. PIF owns both SIRC (CSA counterparty) and Manara Minerals (Ma'aden JV) — the same sovereign entity captures value on both sides.
The Vanadium Dimension
Saudi Aramco petcoke, burned in RCJY boilers, produces vanadium-bearing ash. Carbotura recovers Vanadium Pentoxide (V₂O₅). V₂O₅ feeds into Aramco's Vanadium Redox Flow Battery supply chain for Saudi Arabia's 110 GW renewable energy storage program. Aramco's own waste product → Aramco's own energy storage supply chain. WARN-08 — engineering confirmation required before V₂O₅ is included in any client-facing figures.
Two Structural Gaps — Closed Simultaneously
| Gap | Problem | ACM Response |
|---|---|---|
| Gap 1: MWAN 2035 | 85% diversion mandate. 800+ facilities needed. National capacity: ~1.1 TPD. | Phase Initial: 35,000 tpy toward mandate. 87.5× GEMS current national capacity. |
| Gap 2: Critical Minerals | 100% REE import dependency. 75–86 TPD Jubail 2 ash with no disposition — currently landfilled. | Cerium, Lanthanum, Neodymium, Yttrium, Lithium, Cobalt — RC4 manufactured outputs from circular feedstock. |
Key Facts
| Feedstock streams | MSW residuals · ELT · Wastewater sludge · WtE ash · Petcoke ash · Contaminated recycling · ASR · Commercial · C&D fluff | Registry v3 |
|---|---|---|
| Total addressable TPD | 450 TPD | ESTIMATED |
| Phase Initial target | 100 TPD · 35,000 tpy | LOCKED |
| CSA structure | Ijarah (Processing Service) + Musharakah (Revenue Share) — two independent transactions | LOCKED |
| Revenue Share lag | 13 months rolling · independent transaction | ALWAYS |
| Capital obligation | Zero | LOCKED |
| Carbotura FDI | $55,000,000 · Phase Initial · 100 TPD | LOCKED |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2029 · Sha'ban 1450 AH | ESTIMATED |
| First Revenue Share | July 2029 · Rajab 1451 AH | DERIVED |
| Direct FTE | 47 Subject to Nitaqat compliance — ESTIMATED | ESTIMATED |
| Carbon avoidance | 133,225 tCO₂e/yr · SGI contribution | ESTIMATED |
| MWAN contribution | 35,000 tpy toward 2035 mandate | ESTIMATED |
| Ash stream products | REE suite (Ce, La, Nd, Y) · Li carbonate · Co sulfate · V₂O₅ · Gallium — all RC4 | LOCKED · WARN-08 for V₂O₅ |
| Primary REE buyer | Ma'aden — CANDIDATE (PIF owns SIRC + Manara Minerals) | CANDIDATE |
| Primary V₂O₅ buyer | Saudi Aramco VRFB supply chain — CANDIDATE | CANDIDATE · WARN-08 |
| CSA counterparty | Saudi Investment Recycling Company (SIRC) — PIF subsidiary | LOCKED |
| Site agreement counterparty | Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu (RCJY) — separate entity | LOCKED |
What Delay Costs
The CSA reserves Carbotura's manufacturing commitment to Jubail. Once executed:
- ACM is built on Carbotura capital — Revenue Share stream is locked
- T0 Q4 2026 → COD Q2 2029 → 6 years of MWAN compliance before the 2035 mandate deadline
- T0 slip of 12 months: COD Q2 2030 → 5 years compliance · One full year of Revenue Share forfeited · Saudi Arabia's domestic REE production delayed 12 months against Ma'aden 2027 buildout timeline
The WtE ash offtake agreement with Veolia/RCJY is time-sensitive independently of the SIRC CSA: if a competing ash processor engages Veolia/RCJY before this agreement is in place, the REE stream is lost. WARN-06
Call to Action
Authorise the Authority Feasibility Study
The single action that preserves Q4 2026 T0.
The Feasibility Study resolves:
- GEMS actual gate rates WARN-01
- RCJY Phase II land allocation
- NCEC manufacturing facility classification
- WtE ash offtake engagement with Veolia/RCJY WARN-06
- Petcoke ash vanadium analysis — engineering confirmation WARN-08
- Nitaqat tier with HRSD WARN-03
- Ma'aden REE procurement engagement (first ICO track — fastest path)
Contact: info[at]carbotura.com
Source Basis
Registry-jubail-v3 · SIRC (sirc.sa) · PIF (pif.gov.sa) · RCJY (rcjy.gov.sa) · MWAN (mwan.gov.sa) · Saudi National Minerals Program 2025 · Future Minerals Forum January 2026 · Rare Earth Exchanges Saudi REE Strategy 2025 · Gradeall Tire Industry Statistics 2026 · Grand View Research Saudi Tire Recycling 2025 · Springer Nature Vanadium in Petcoke Ash 2026 · Exchange-rates.org SAR/USD 3.75 May 2026
Financial projections: Carbotura Circular Advantage modeling, RC3 baseline, standard contractual parameters, Saudi standard deployment schedule. All financial figures ESTIMATED unless marked LOCKED. This document does not constitute a Sharia certification or a sukuk prospectus. Formal Sharia Board review recommended prior to CSA execution.