Document SP-01 · Authority Finance LOCKED WITH WARNINGS

Economic Impact Report

Yanbu Industrial City — Phase Initial · Registry: registry-yanbu-v1

Sharia-Structured Instrument Ijarah (manufacturing and processing service) + Musharakah (revenue participation in manufactured goods). Two independent transactions — never combined, netted, or described as components of a single return. Formal Sharia Board review recommended prior to CSA execution.
All financial figures prepared under IFRS. SAR primary / USD secondary. SAR/USD 3.75 (pegged, VERIFIED). Figures marked ESTIMATED unless LOCKED.

Three modules. One corridor. The same 300 TPD Phase Initial deployment that addresses 105,000 tpy toward Saudi Arabia's MWAN 2035 mandate also initiates the Kingdom's largest single-site V₂O₅ recovery from YASREF petcoke ash and the first industrial-scale circular polymer-to-advanced-materials manufacturing — at zero Authority capital, generating net surplus from Year 2 onward.

Decision Summary

THIS EIR MODELS OPTION A — STANDARD ELECTION
Parameter State A — Current System State B — Option A (ACM, 3 modules)
Annual disposal cost Ongoing — petcoke + polymer streams may carry hazardous premium WARN-01 Processing Service (Ijarah) — Year 1 only net outflow
Capital obligation Ongoing disposal spend (no asset created) Zero LOCKED
Year 2+ net Disposal cost escalating — 3× Jubail volume Net surplus — Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service on 105,000 tpy
V₂O₅ / critical minerals None — YASREF petcoke ash landfilled V₂O₅ from YASREF/SAMREF → Aramco VRFB supply chain WARN-01 for vanadium conc.
Polymer waste YANSAB polymer rejects — no circular processor RC3/RC4 carbon materials → SABIC off-take (CANDIDATE)
MWAN contribution None 105,000 tpy toward 2035 mandate ESTIMATED
Employment No new in-Kingdom FTE 141 direct FTE + 423 indirect ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled
Cost of Delay — Each 12-Month T0 Slip (3-module impact)
  • Compresses MWAN compliance contribution by 12 months — at 3× Jubail volume, the mandate impact is proportionally greater
  • Delays Saudi Arabia's V₂O₅ supply from the largest national refinery complex by 12 months
  • Delays polymer waste circular manufacturing — YANSAB continues with disposal at escalating cost

State A — Current System Baseline

  • Industrial waste streams (MSW, sludge, recycling, C&D): SAR 140–200/ton ESTIMATED
  • Petcoke/refinery ash (YASREF/SAMREF): SAR 180–280/ton — potential hazardous premium above standard rate WARN-01
  • Polymer waste (YANSAB): SAR 150–250/ton — no incumbent circular processor; disposal only
  • Blended FWDC: SAR 290/ton · $77.33/ton ESTIMATED ⚠ WARN-01

State A structural position: 400 TPD (140,000 tpy) of industrial waste generating no manufactured output, no critical minerals, no MWAN diversion credit. YASREF petcoke vanadium continues landfilled. YANSAB polymer waste continues as disposal cost with no circular value recovery.

State B — Deployment Baseline

Volume 105,000 tpy (300 TPD × 350 days) — 3 modules LOCKED
T0 Q2 2027 ESTIMATED
COD Q4 2029 ESTIMATED
Revenue Share lag 13 months rolling — independent transaction ALWAYS
Carbotura FDI $165M (SAR 618.75M) (3 modules × $55M) LOCKED

Delta Analysis

YEAR 1 AND YEAR 2+ ARE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT — NEVER AVERAGE

Year 1: Processing Service paid. Zero Revenue Share. Pre-royalty 13-month period. Net: outflow only. Month 14+: Revenue Share commences rolling monthly on all 3 modules. Independent transaction. Year 2+: Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service on full 105,000 tpy volume — net surplus.

3-Module Scale Effect: At 3× Jubail volume (105,000 tpy vs 35,000 tpy), the Year 2+ surplus is proportionally larger. The 30-year cumulative Revenue Share at Phase Initial scale is approximately 3× the Jubail Phase Initial figure. ESTIMATED.

System-Level Impact

Employment ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled

Category Phase Initial (3 modules)
Direct FTE (in-Kingdom) 141
Indirect 423
National Content (IKTVA proxy) 62% ESTIMATED

Subject to Nitaqat compliance. In-Kingdom composition confirmed at Feasibility Study with HRSD (WARN-03).

Environmental Delta

Metric State A State B — Phase Initial
Carbon avoidance 0 399,675 tCO₂e/yr ESTIMATED
SGI contribution None 399,675 tCO₂e/yr toward 278M tCO₂e target
MWAN compliance None 105,000 tpy toward 2035 mandate
Polymer waste circular recovery None — disposal only 80 TPD YANSAB polymer → RC3/RC4 output
V₂O₅ recovery None — landfilled YASREF/SAMREF petcoke → V₂O₅ for VRFB chain

Risk and Sensitivity

# Risk Mitigation
1 Petcoke ash hazardous classification — higher FWDC Net surplus is independent of FWDC. Higher disposal cost strengthens State A cost argument.
2 V₂O₅ concentration below commercial threshold YASREF heavy crude is known high-vanadium source — lower risk than generic petcoke. Engineering confirmation required WARN-01
3 YANSAB polymer waste access — SABIC gate YANSAB (SABIC 51%) and SIRC (PIF) engagement at authority level. SABIC is also off-take CANDIDATE.
4 Nitaqat compliance for 141 FTE Feasibility Study with HRSD — WARN-03
5 SAR/USD currency Pegged at 3.75 — minimal risk VERIFIED
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EXOGENESIS PROTOCOL · LEGACY LANDFILL REMEDIATION

Urban Mining — Near-Zero by Design

"The Exogenesis Protocol for Urban Mining — Carbotura's Near-Zero Emissions, Near-Zero Waste, Near-Zero Discharge approach to legacy landfill recovery. Operating under a sealed, advancing membrane enclosure with point-of-excavation gas capture via the Atmospheric Protection System (APS) and a fully electric, remotely operated excavation fleet. No personnel enter the enclosure under any operational condition."

  • $50 USD (SAR 187.50) / tonneExogenesis Royalty paid to the Authority on every legacy tonne processed through the ACM facility.
  • 40,000–81,000 m²Advancing membrane enclosure footprint per unit; advances across the mine face as excavation proceeds.
  • In development · design-basisConcept positioning per SA_14. Engineering target. Saudi Green Initiative restoration upon completion.
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