In-Country Off-take Study — Riyadh

Sharia-Structured Instrument Ijarah + Musharakah. Option A-IC in-country premium participation is an additive election on top of the base CSA. Formal Sharia Board review recommended prior to CSA execution.

All buyer status: CANDIDATE — no LOI at registry lock. WARN-05 applies.

Riyadh's carbon-dominant ACM output — Carbon Black, High-Purity Graphite, Carbon Fiber Precursor, Graphene Oxide, Aromatics, and Pozzolanic SCM — targets four Saudi institutional anchor buyers with immediate in-Kingdom procurement demand. As the capital city and PIF headquarters, Riyadh concentrates Saudi Arabia's most significant institutional buyers within a single industrial corridor, providing an in-country off-take density unmatched anywhere in the programme.

What This Means

National capital advantage: PIF, SABIC, Aramco Upstream Technology, NIDLP, and Ma'aden corporate headquarters are all located in or operate from Riyadh. Off-take procurement decisions for the entire programme are made in this city — ACM operating within the MODON Riyadh corridor is structurally proximate to every institutional buyer decision-maker.
SABIC's Riyadh operations require Carbon Black as a polymer compounding input and High-Purity Graphite as a battery and industrial materials input. Saudi Arabia imports a significant proportion of its advanced carbon materials. ACM at full programme scale (1,000 TPD) produces these at domestic supply volumes.
Aramco Materials Research Center — headquartered in Dhahran but maintaining Riyadh programme offices — is a buyer and development partner for Carbon Fiber Precursor and Graphene Oxide, both of which feed Aramco's advanced materials supply chain for lightweight structures and energy storage.
Vision 2030's construction boom — NIDLP giga-project programme, NEOM, Red Sea, AMAALA — creates structural demand for Pozzolanic SCM (supplementary cementitious material) as a domestically produced cement replacement. Riyadh is the national procurement hub for all major Vision 2030 programme procurement.
No critical minerals dependency: Riyadh's ICO base case does not require ash stream confirmation, REE characterization, or WARN-08 engineering. The carbon ICO path is available from Day 1 of ACM operations.

RevCon™ Output Baseline

All yields from the Circular Materials Catalog (CMC) reference — 100 TPD per module, RC3 baseline, 350 operating days. Phase Initial = 1 module. Full programme = 10 modules. Design-basis estimates. Not an offer.

Carbon and Organics (Phase Initial — 100 TPD, 35,000 tpy)

Product	RevCon	Annual tpy ESTIMATED	Export Ref. $/ton	Primary Buyer (CANDIDATE)
High-Purity Graphite CRB-008	RC3	1,068	$6,000–$10,000	SABIC — battery + industrial materials
Carbon Black CRB-007	RC2-RC3	2,188	$800–$1,500	SABIC — polymer compounding
Carbon Fiber Precursor CRB-009	RC4	875	$15,000–$22,000	Aramco Materials R&D
Graphene Oxide CRB-010	RC4	175	$60,000–$100,000	Aramco Materials R&D / NEOM OXAGON
Aromatics (BTX) ARM-003-005	RC3	3,589	$900–$2,000	SABIC / domestic refining
Pozzolanic SCM MIN-002	RC2	1,400	$80–$140	NIDLP / Vision 2030 construction
Mineral Aggregate MIN-001	RC1	4,200	$30–$80	Riyadh IC construction supply

Full programme (10 modules, 350,000 tpy) scales all figures by 10×. Riyadh is the largest single ACM deployment in the KSA programme.

Buyer 1 — SABIC: Carbon Black + High-Purity Graphite

Status: CANDIDATE — No LOI at registry lock. WARN-05 applies.

SABIC (Saudi Basic Industries Corporation) — 70% Saudi Aramco-owned, the world's fourth-largest chemical company by revenue — is the natural anchor buyer for Riyadh ACM's carbon outputs.

Carbon Black: SABIC's polymer compounding and specialty chemicals divisions consume Carbon Black as a standard input. Riyadh's MSW, commercial, and C&D streams yield 2,188 tpy CB (Phase Initial) — a significant domestic supply offset against SABIC's current import dependency.
High-Purity Graphite: SABIC's battery materials and advanced industrial inputs division has identified graphite as a critical procurement gap aligned with Saudi Arabia's battery supply chain buildout. 1,068 tpy HP Graphite (Phase Initial) from Riyadh ACM qualifies as a domestic source.
Aromatics (BTX): SABIC's petrochemical processing integrates BTX as a feedstock. 3,589 tpy aromatics from Riyadh ACM provides an alternative domestic source offset against naphtha-derived BTX.
IKTVA scoring: SABIC receives IKTVA (In-Kingdom Total Value Add) credit for domestic procurement from Saudi-based manufacturers. ACM in MODON Riyadh = Saudi-based manufacturer — a procurement incentive independent of unit price.

Confirmation pathway: SABIC Riyadh procurement and chemicals division engagement → specification review → supply agreement. Estimated timeline from T0: 6–12 months (carbon output, no engineering risk).

Buyer 2 — Aramco Materials Research Center

Status: CANDIDATE — No LOI at registry lock. WARN-05 applies.

Saudi Aramco's Materials Research Center and advanced materials procurement programmes represent the primary buyer pathway for Riyadh ACM's RC4 carbon outputs.

Carbon Fiber Precursor (RC4): Aramco's lightweight structures programme for oil and gas applications (composite pipelines, drill components) and EV supply chain collaboration (Aramco-BYD JDA, April 2025) creates structural demand for Carbon Fiber Precursor. 875 tpy from Riyadh ACM Phase Initial provides a domestic source. Saudi Arabia currently has no domestic CFP production.
Graphene Oxide (RC4): Aramco's advanced materials R&D division uses Graphene Oxide for corrosion inhibition coatings, membrane filtration, and enhanced oil recovery applications. 175 tpy from Riyadh ACM Phase Initial — currently an import item.
IKTVA alignment: Both products qualify for Aramco IKTVA credit as domestically produced advanced materials. This has direct monetary value in Aramco's licensing and procurement structure.
Saudi IKTVA programme: Aramco has publicly committed to 70%+ IKTVA targets across its supply chain. ACM-sourced advanced carbon materials contribute to this target while addressing import dependency.

Confirmation pathway: Aramco IKTVA supplier development + SATC technology arm engagement → specification review → preferred supplier agreement. Timeline: 9–15 months from T0.

Buyer 3 — NEOM OXAGON

Status: CANDIDATE — No LOI at registry lock. WARN-05 applies.

OXAGON — NEOM's advanced industrial city — procures Carbon Fiber Precursor and Graphene Oxide for composite manufacturing and energy storage applications. Riyadh ACM, as the largest single deployment in the programme, provides supply volumes commensurate with OXAGON's industrial procurement scale.

Carbon Fiber Precursor: OXAGON's aerospace, EV, and advanced structural manufacturing tenants require CFP as a base input. Riyadh ACM Phase Initial: 875 tpy. Full programme (10 modules): up to 8,750 tpy — a significant OXAGON procurement volume.
Graphene Oxide: OXAGON's advanced materials and filtration tenants use GO for composite enhancement and membrane applications. Domestic supply from Riyadh ACM removes the current import dependency.
Scale alignment: Riyadh's full programme (1,000 TPD) produces output volumes relevant to OXAGON's industrial procurement scale — this is a programme-level buyer relationship, not a site-level engagement.

Confirmation pathway: OXAGON industrial procurement office engagement → specification review → preferred supplier agreement. Timeline: 12–18 months from T0.

Buyer 4 — NIDLP / Vision 2030 Construction Programme

Status: CANDIDATE — No LOI at registry lock. WARN-05 applies.

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 giga-project construction programme — NEOM, Red Sea, AMAALA, Diriyah Gate, King Salman Park, New Murabba — represents an unprecedented sustained demand for construction materials, including cement supplement alternatives.

Pozzolanic SCM (RC2): Supplementary cementitious material from wastewater sludge processing reduces Portland cement consumption in concrete. 1,400 tpy Phase Initial; up to 14,000 tpy full programme. NIDLP (National Industrial Development and Logistics Program) procurement framework governs giga-project materials sourcing.
Mineral Aggregate (RC1): 4,200 tpy Phase Initial direct to Riyadh IC construction supply chain — shortest possible in-country supply chain.
Saudi Green Initiative alignment: Pozzolanic SCM substitution reduces cement carbon intensity, contributing to SGI construction decarbonisation targets. Carbon credits from this substitution are a potential additive revenue stream.

Confirmation pathway: NIDLP procurement framework engagement + giga-project materials supply chain → specification alignment → framework supply agreement. Timeline: 12–24 months (construction procurement cycles).

In-Country Premium Rationale

The in-country premium for Riyadh ACM output is driven by import substitution economics, IKTVA scoring value, and supply chain security:

Product	Import substitution case	Estimated premium ESTIMATED — WARN-04
Carbon Black RC2-RC3	Saudi Arabia imports significant share of CB requirements; domestic SABIC supply is a procurement priority	+8–15%
High-Purity Graphite RC3	Zero domestic HP Graphite production; China controls 60%+ of global supply	+12–18%
Carbon Fiber Precursor RC4	No domestic CFP production; import from Japan/US; IKTVA credit adds monetary value	+15–22%
Graphene Oxide RC4	Fully imported; no domestic producer; supply chain security premium	+15–20%

All premiums ESTIMATED. Verify with SABIC and Aramco procurement engagement. WARN-04 applies. In-country premium is additive to base product economics — base case holds without premium.

National Capital Location Premium: Riyadh's proximity to PIF, SABIC, and Aramco headquarters compresses the procurement decision timeline relative to all other regions in the programme. Off-take engagement that might take 18 months in a peripheral industrial city can be initiated within the first quarter of T0 in Riyadh.

Confirmation Pathway

Minimum Viable Off-take Package

LOI from ≥ 2 anchor buyers covering ≥ 10,000 tpy or ≥ $5M annual value
At least one RC4 buyer (Aramco Materials R&D or NEOM OXAGON) plus one RC2-RC3 buyer (SABIC)
No engineering confirmation required — all Riyadh outputs are carbon and organics with no WARN-08 dependency

Priority Sequence

SABIC CB + Graphite (fastest path): Carbon products, no engineering risk, existing SIRC-SABIC procurement relationship. PIF alignment (SABIC is Aramco-owned).
Aramco Materials R&D — CFP + GO: Higher value, requires specification review but no new chemistry — ACM output is established. IKTVA incentive is immediate.
NEOM OXAGON — advanced materials: Programme-level relationship; Phase Initial volumes are modest relative to OXAGON scale. Full programme (10 modules) provides relevant supply scale.
NIDLP / construction — Pozzolanic SCM: Longer procurement cycle; giga-project framework engagement. Volume is significant at full programme scale.

Risk & Sensitivity

#	Risk	Mitigation
1	SABIC specification mismatch on Carbon Black grade	Sample protocol before LOI. ACM output specification sheet to SABIC procurement. CB is established product with defined industrial grades.
2	Aramco CFP/GO volumes too small at Phase Initial	Phase Initial establishes the relationship; full programme (10 modules) provides volumes relevant to Aramco's procurement scale. LOI can cover programme ramp.
3	NIDLP procurement timeline longer than critical path	Option A base case does not require NIDLP LOI. A-IC is additive. Construction procurement track runs in parallel with no bearing on CSA execution.
4	IKTVA scoring revision reduces procurement incentive	IKTVA premium is additive; base product economics hold without it. Saudi government has publicly committed to IKTVA expansion, not contraction.
5	NEOM procurement cycle longer than critical path	NEOM OXAGON is a medium-term buyer — Phase Initial revenue does not depend on NEOM LOI. Full programme volumes make Riyadh a compelling OXAGON supply partner at scale.

Option A-IC strategic value scales materially at full programme (10 modules, 1,000 TPD, 350,000 tpy). Phase Initial establishes buyer relationships and production credentials.