Executive Brief
Riyadh — Phase Initial · Registry: registry-riyadh-v1
Saudi Arabia's largest single ACM deployment. 21% of national waste volume. One action required by Q3 2027.
Opening
Riyadh generates an estimated 7,300 TPD of municipal and industrial waste — the single largest waste corridor in Saudi Arabia, accounting for approximately 21% of national volume. Seven material streams are addressable by ACM: MSW residuals, End-of-Life Tires, wastewater sludge, contaminated recycling, Automotive Shredder Residue, commercial waste, and C&D fluff. Phase Initial targets 100 TPD (1 module, $55M Carbotura FDI) at Q2 2030 COD, scaling to the full 1,000 TPD programme ($550M Carbotura FDI) across 10 modules.
MWAN Mandate
85% diversion from landfill by 2035. As the capital city processing 21% of national waste, Riyadh's compliance contribution is uniquely significant. No MWAN compliance without advanced processing infrastructure.
Advanced Carbon Import Dependency
Saudi Arabia imports Carbon Fiber Precursor, High-Purity Graphite, and Graphene Oxide — all critical inputs for Vision 2030's industrial and EV supply chain. Riyadh ACM produces these domestically from existing waste streams.
Carbotura Phase Initial (100 TPD, Q2 2030 COD) closes both gaps simultaneously. $550M Carbotura FDI into the national capital at full programme scale.
The Decision
Options B, B+Exogenesis, and Option A-IC (in-country premium on Carbon Black, Graphite, and CFP sales to SABIC, Aramco Materials R&D, and NEOM OXAGON) are described in the Proposal and ICO Study.
The Circular Supply Agreement authorises Carbotura to operate an Advanced Circular Manufacturing centre at MODON Riyadh (Manufacturing Site Deed: MODON · CSA: Saudi Investment Recycling Company (SIRC), 100% PIF subsidiary). Two independent agreements — two independent counterparties.
- Processing Service (Ijarah): Authority pays for a manufacturing and processing service per ton processed — Year 1
- Manufactured Goods Revenue Share (Musharakah): Authority receives a share of manufactured output revenue, 13 months after each corresponding Processing Service payment — from Month 14 onward
- Zero capital obligation: Carbotura designs, finances, builds, owns, and operates. LOCKED.
Scale sequence: Phase Initial (100 TPD, 1 module) → Phase Medium (300 TPD) → Phase Expanded (600 TPD) → Full Programme (1,000 TPD, 10 modules). Each phase is a separate module addition — Authority exercises no capital at any phase.
Key Facts
| Addressable streams | MSW residuals · ELT · Wastewater sludge · Contaminated recycling · ASR · Commercial · C&D fluff | LOCKED |
| Total addressable TPD | 7,300 TPD ESTIMATED (21% national) | ESTIMATED |
| Phase Initial | 100 TPD · 35,000 tpy · 1 module | LOCKED |
| Full programme | 1,000 TPD · 350,000 tpy · 10 modules | LOCKED |
| Carbotura FDI (Phase Initial) | $55M | LOCKED |
| Carbotura FDI (full programme) | $550M | LOCKED |
| Revenue Share lag | 13 months rolling · independent transaction | ALWAYS |
| Capital obligation | Zero | LOCKED |
| T0 | Q4 2027 | ESTIMATED |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2030 · Sha'ban 1452 AH | ESTIMATED |
| First Revenue Share | ~Q3 2031 | DERIVED |
| Direct FTE (Phase Initial) | 47 Subject to Nitaqat compliance — ESTIMATED | ESTIMATED |
| Direct FTE (full programme) | 470 Subject to Nitaqat compliance — ESTIMATED | ESTIMATED |
| Carbon avoidance (full programme) | 1,332,250 tCO₂e/yr · SGI contribution | ESTIMATED |
| MWAN contribution (full programme) | 350,000 tpy toward 2035 mandate | ESTIMATED |
| Primary ICO buyers (CANDIDATE) | SABIC Riyadh · Aramco Materials R&D · NEOM OXAGON · NIDLP | CANDIDATE |
| Site agreement counterparty | MODON (National Industrial Development Company) | LOCKED |
| CSA counterparty | Saudi Investment Recycling Company (SIRC) — 100% PIF subsidiary | LOCKED |
What Delay Costs
The CSA reserves Carbotura's manufacturing commitment to Riyadh. Once executed, ACM is built on Carbotura capital — the Revenue Share stream is locked.
- MWAN 2035 compliance window shortens — Riyadh's 21% national volume creates the largest single compliance exposure in the programme
- Forfeits one full year of Revenue Share at full programme scale
- SABIC, Aramco, and NEOM OXAGON off-take relationships delayed — competing domestic carbon processors may enter the market
- COD slips to Q2 2031 → only 4 years of MWAN compliance before the 2035 mandate
Call to Action
Authorise the Authority Feasibility Study — the single action that preserves Q4 2027 T0.
The Feasibility Study resolves:
- MODON Riyadh IC actual gate rates (WARN-01)
- MODON Phase II land allocation — 15,000–25,000 m² per 100 TPD module
- NCEC manufacturing facility classification
- Nitaqat tier with HRSD (WARN-03)
- SABIC and Aramco Materials R&D off-take engagement (first ICO track)
Contact: info[at]carbotura.com
Source Basis
Registry-riyadh-v1 · SIRC (sirc.sa) · PIF (pif.gov.sa) · MODON (modon.gov.sa) · MWAN (mwan.gov.sa) · Saudi National Minerals Program 2025 · Exchange-rates.org SAR/USD 3.75 May 2026. Financial projections: Carbotura Circular Advantage modeling, RC3 baseline, standard contractual parameters. All figures ESTIMATED unless LOCKED. This document does not constitute a Sharia certification or sukuk prospectus.