Economic Impact Report
NEOM — Phase Initial · Registry: registry-neom-v1
State A sourced from Feedstock Study (construction-dominated stream profile, FWDC SAR 320/ton ESTIMATED — highest in programme). State B from Proposal. Inherited warnings: WARN-01 (FWDC), WARN-02 (feedstock volume), WARN-03 (Nitaqat), WARN-05 (surge factor — construction peak).
Seven streams. Construction surge design basis (800 TPD peak). The same 300 TPD full-programme deployment addresses 105,000 tpy toward MWAN 2035 while delivering Carbon Fiber Precursor and Graphene Oxide directly to OXAGON's advanced manufacturing procurement — NEOM is both authority and primary ICO buyer — at zero capital deployment. Phase Initial: 100 TPD · 1 module · $55M Carbotura FDI.
Decision Summary
Option A-IC for NEOM is the highest-integration ICO structure in the programme: NEOM Company is both authority counterparty and primary buyer. OXAGON procurement LOI would activate A-IC. No ash REE or V₂O₅ stream at NEOM.
| Parameter | State A — Current System | State B — Option A (ACM) |
|---|---|---|
| FWDC | SAR 320/ton — highest in KSA programme (remote location, no incumbent processor) | Processing Service (Ijarah) — Year 1 net outflow; 2.5%/yr contractual escalator |
| Construction waste (220 TPD C&D) | Export or remote disposal — no domestic advanced processor for C&D fluff | Converted to Carbon Fiber Precursor RC4 and Mineral Aggregate RC1 — OXAGON procurement ready |
| Capital obligation | Ongoing disposal spend — no asset created | Zero LOCKED |
| Year 2+ net | SAR 320/ton disposal escalating | Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service — net surplus position |
| OXAGON advanced materials | Carbon Fiber, Graphene Oxide: 100% import-dependent | Domestic supply from NEOM's own construction waste — OXAGON in-country premium |
| MWAN contribution | None | 105,000 tpy full programme toward 2035 mandate |
| Employment | No new in-Kingdom FTE | 141 direct FTE full programme + 423 indirect ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled |
- At SAR 320/ton (highest FWDC in programme), State A cost compounds faster than other regions
- Samsung C&T JV construction volume continues to be disposed without advanced processing for 12 months
- OXAGON Carbon Fiber and Graphene Oxide supply chain remains fully import-dependent for 12 months
- Forfeits one full year of Revenue Share (3-module scale)
State A — Current System Baseline
Construction-Dominated Disposal Cost All ESTIMATED — WARN-01
- C&D fluff (220 TPD, Samsung C&T JV): SAR 280–400/ton — remote NEOM location, no disposal infrastructure
- Construction mixed waste: SAR 280–380/ton
- Workforce MSW: SAR 200–280/ton
- Sludge (construction dewatering): SAR 200–300/ton
- ELT (workforce vehicles): SAR 250–400/ton
- Blended FWDC: SAR 320/ton · $85.33/ton ESTIMATED ⚠ WARN-01 — highest in KSA programme
State A Cost Trajectory — FWDC at 2.5%/yr from SAR 320/ton
SAR 320/ton FWDC is the highest in the KSA programme — a direct function of NEOM's remote Red Sea coastal location and the complete absence of incumbent processing infrastructure. State B eliminates this premium: ACM is built on Carbotura capital at OXAGON, converting the highest-cost disposal context in the programme into the highest net surplus per ton processed.
State B — Deployment Baseline
| Term | Phase Initial | Full Programme | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity | 100 TPD · 1 module | 300 TPD · 3 modules | LOCKED |
| Annual volume | 35,000 tpy | 105,000 tpy | LOCKED |
| Carbotura FDI | $55M (SAR 206.25M) | $165M (SAR 618.75M) | LOCKED |
| Authority counterparty | NEOM Company (PIF Direct) — single entity for CSA and Manufacturing Site Deed | LOCKED | |
| Revenue Share lag | 13 months rolling | ALWAYS | |
| T0 | Q4 2028 | ESTIMATED | |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2031 | ESTIMATED | |
| First Revenue Share | ~Q3 2032 | DERIVED | |
Delta Analysis
Year 1: NEOM Company pays Processing Service. Zero Revenue Share. 13-month pre-royalty period from COD (Q2 2031). Year 2+: Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service — net surplus. NEOM's high FWDC (SAR 320/ton) means the gross cost displacement in Year 1 is the highest in the programme on a per-ton basis — and the surplus from Year 2 onward reflects this structural advantage.
FWDC Sensitivity
| FWDC | Year 1 gross displacement (Phase Initial) | Net Year 2+ surplus |
|---|---|---|
| SAR 250/ton | SAR 8,750,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged LOCKED |
| SAR 320/ton (base) | SAR 11,200,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged LOCKED |
| SAR 400/ton | SAR 14,000,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged LOCKED |
OXAGON ICO Delta (Option A-IC — ESTIMATED)
NEOM's Option A-IC structure is unique in the programme: NEOM Company is simultaneously the authority counterparty and the primary ICO buyer. There is no arm's-length off-take negotiation required. The same procurement decision that authorises the CSA also activates OXAGON's Carbon Fiber Precursor and Graphene Oxide supply.
| Output | State A (import) | State B (OXAGON domestic) | In-country premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon Fiber Precursor CRB-009 RC4 | 100% imported — ocean freight + logistics overhead | Produced at OXAGON from NEOM's own C&D/ASR | +15% ESTIMATED (import substitution + no freight) |
| Graphene Oxide CRB-010 RC4 | 100% imported — no domestic supplier | Produced at OXAGON from NEOM's C&D/MSW | +15-20% ESTIMATED |
| Pozzolanic SCM RC2 | Imported — NEOM construction cement demand | Domestic from sludge stream — available to NEOM contractors | +10-15% ESTIMATED |
All CANDIDATE — no LOI at registry lock. WARN-05. Option A base case independent of OXAGON LOI.
System-Level Impact
Employment ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled
| Phase | Modules | Direct FTE | Indirect FTE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 1 | 47 | 141 |
| Phase Medium | 2 | 94 | 282 |
| Full Programme | 3 | 141 | 423 |
Environmental Delta
| Metric | State A | Phase Initial | Full Programme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diversion from landfill / export | ~5% (no incumbent) | 35,000 tpy | 105,000 tpy |
| Carbon avoidance | 0 | 399,675 tCO₂e/yr ESTIMATED | 399,675 tCO₂e/yr ESTIMATED |
| MWAN contribution | None | 35,000 tpy | 105,000 tpy |
Risk & Sensitivity
| # | Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDC lower than SAR 320/ton (construction programme changes) | Net Year 2+ surplus independent of FWDC. Even at SAR 200/ton, surplus position holds |
| 2 | Construction peak surge (800 TPD) exceeds Phase Initial capacity | 3-module programme absorbs surge at full programme (300 TPD). Phase Initial processes priority C&D and ASR streams. Samsung C&T 40% at-source reduction reduces effective surge volume |
| 3 | OXAGON procurement cycle longer than critical path | WARN-05 — Option A base case independent of OXAGON LOI. A-IC is additive. NEOM Company single-entity structure means procurement decision is internal, not arm's-length |
| 4 | NEOM Saudization requirements (NEOM HR policy independent of HRSD) | Feasibility Study confirms Nitaqat / NEOM HR framework at T0. WARN-03 adapted to NEOM context |
| 5 | T0 Q4 2028 is last in programme — limited MWAN window before 2035 | 7 years from COD to 2035 mandate deadline — adequate for MWAN contribution. Earlier T0 activation compresses timeline risk |