Economic Impact Report
Jeddah Industrial City — Phase Initial · Registry: registry-jeddah-v1
State A sourced from Feedstock Study (nine-stream feedstock profile including Hajj surge, Jeddah Islamic Port stream, FWDC SAR 270/ton ESTIMATED). State B sourced from Proposal. Inherited warnings: WARN-01 (FWDC), WARN-02 (feedstock volume), WARN-03 (Nitaqat), WARN-05 (surge factor).
Nine streams. Hajj surge design basis (10,700 TPD). The same 600 TPD full-programme deployment that addresses 210,000 tpy toward MWAN 2035 also processes the Jeddah Islamic Port stream (400 TPD — no other processor nationally) — at zero Authority capital, generating a net surplus from Year 2 onward.
Decision Summary
Option A-IC models in-country premium to SABIC (cross-region Carbon Black), Red Sea Destination (sustainable materials), and NEOM OXAGON. Exogenesis eligibility under review.
| Parameter | State A — Current System | State B — Option A (ACM) |
|---|---|---|
| Disposal cost | Ongoing — escalating; Hajj surge adds acute seasonal stress ESTIMATED | Processing Service (Ijarah) — Year 1 net outflow only |
| Hajj surge management | No advanced processing — surge volume compounds disposal cost stress | ACM designed for 10,700 TPD surge P90 — processes surge-priority streams at full throughput |
| Port stream (400 TPD) | No incumbent processor — disposal liability | ACCESSIBLE under separate port authority agreement — additive to CSA stream |
| Capital obligation | Ongoing disposal spend (no asset created) | Zero LOCKED |
| Year 2+ net | Disposal cost escalating | Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service — net surplus |
| MWAN contribution | None | 210,000 tpy full programme toward 2035 mandate |
| Employment | No new in-Kingdom FTE | 282 direct FTE full programme + 846 indirect ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled |
- Additional Hajj season (2.5M+ pilgrims) managed without advanced processing — acute disposal infrastructure stress
- Jeddah Islamic Port stream continues as disposal liability for additional 12 months with no processor
- Forfeits one full year of Revenue Share (6-module scale)
- MWAN compliance contribution delayed against 2035 mandate
State A — Current System Baseline
Nine-Stream Cost Structure All ESTIMATED — WARN-01
- SIRC subsidiary residuals: SAR 140–200/ton
- Jeddah Islamic Port commercial waste: SAR 180–280/ton — import logistics + compliance overhead
- ELT / tires: SAR 200–400/ton equivalent
- Contaminated recycling: SAR 140–180/ton
- Wastewater sludge (NWC): SAR 120–180/ton
- Blended FWDC: SAR 270/ton · $72/ton ESTIMATED ⚠ WARN-01
State A Cost Trajectory — FWDC at 2.5%/yr from SAR 270/ton
Hajj Surge — State A Stress Point: In State A, the Hajj season surge (6,114 → 10,700 TPD, 1.75×) is managed entirely through emergency disposal and export — at significant cost premium over the blended FWDC. The surge is not captured in FWDC estimates. Real State A cost during Hajj season materially exceeds SAR 270/ton. This is the single strongest economic argument for State B deployment at Jeddah: surge capacity is built once (Carbotura capital) and absorbs the acute seasonal stress annually.
State B — Deployment Baseline
| Term | Phase Initial | Full Programme | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity | 100 TPD · 1 module | 600 TPD · 6 modules | LOCKED |
| Annual volume | 35,000 tpy | 210,000 tpy | LOCKED |
| Carbotura FDI | $55M (SAR 206.25M) | $330M (SAR 1,237.50M) | LOCKED |
| Revenue Share lag | 13 months rolling from corresponding fee payment | ALWAYS | |
| T0 | Q2 2028 | ESTIMATED | |
| Phase Initial COD | Q4 2030 | ESTIMATED | |
| First Revenue Share | ~Q1 2032 | DERIVED | |
Delta Analysis
Year 1: Authority pays Processing Service (Ijarah). Receives zero Revenue Share. Net: outflow only — 13-month pre-royalty period from Phase Initial COD (Q4 2030).
Month 14 onward: Revenue Share (Musharakah) commences on rolling monthly basis. Independent transaction.
Steady state Year 2+: Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service — net surplus position.
FWDC Sensitivity
| FWDC | Year 1 gross displacement (Phase Initial) | Net Year 2+ surplus |
|---|---|---|
| SAR 200/ton | SAR 7,000,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged — contractual LOCKED |
| SAR 270/ton (base) | SAR 9,450,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged — contractual LOCKED |
| SAR 360/ton | SAR 12,600,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged — contractual LOCKED |
System-Level Impact
Employment ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled
| Phase | Modules | Direct FTE | Indirect FTE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 1 | 47 | 141 |
| Phase Medium | 3 | 141 | 423 |
| Full Programme | 6 | 282 | 846 |
Environmental Delta
| Metric | State A | Phase Initial | Full Programme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diversion from landfill | ~10% | 35,000 tpy | 210,000 tpy |
| Carbon avoidance | 0 | 799,350 tCO₂e/yr ESTIMATED | 799,350 tCO₂e/yr ESTIMATED |
| MWAN contribution | None | 35,000 tpy | 210,000 tpy |
Risk & Sensitivity
| # | Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDC lower than SAR 270/ton | Net Year 2+ surplus is independent of FWDC |
| 2 | Hajj surge logistics — feedstock aggregation at MODON gate during peak season | WARN-05 — surge logistics plan at Feasibility Study. Phase Initial 100 TPD processes surge-priority streams. Port agreement accelerates access to 400 TPD stream |
| 3 | Port authority agreement timeline | Parallel-track with SIRC CSA — independent agreement. Port logistics relationship through GEMS Jeddah |
| 4 | ICO buyer LOI timing | WARN-05 — Option A base case does not require LOI. A-IC is additive |
| 5 | Nitaqat compliance | Feasibility Study with HRSD — WARN-03 |