Economic Impact Report
Dammam / Eastern Province — Phase Initial · Registry: registry-dammam-v1
State A sourced from Feedstock Study (eight-stream Eastern Province profile, FWDC SAR 285/ton ESTIMATED, 8.08% CAGR). State B from Proposal. Inherited warnings: WARN-01 (FWDC), WARN-02 (feedstock volume), WARN-03 (Nitaqat), WARN-08 (V₂O₅ Ras Tanura).
Eight streams. 8.08% CAGR growth — fastest in the KSA programme. Ras Tanura petcoke ash (Saudi Arabia's highest-vanadium ash source nationally) converts from disposal liability to V₂O₅ supply for Aramco's VRFB chain — at zero Authority capital, generating a net surplus from Year 2 onward. Phase Initial: 100 TPD · 1 module · $55M Carbotura FDI.
Decision Summary
Option A-IC is the highest-priority ICO configuration in the programme (Aramco VRFB V₂O₅ — Aramco HQ is 30 km from Ras Tanura). WARN-08 must be resolved before V₂O₅ is included in any client figure.
| Parameter | State A — Current System | State B — Option A (ACM) |
|---|---|---|
| Disposal cost trajectory | 8.08% CAGR — fastest growth in KSA programme. Aramco expansion drives industrial waste volume | Processing Service (Ijarah) — Year 1 net outflow; 2.5%/yr contractual escalator |
| Ras Tanura ash (120 TPD) | Disposal liability — highest-vanadium ash stream in KSA programme with no processor | V₂O₅ manufacturing input — Aramco's own waste product → Aramco's VRFB supply chain WARN-08 |
| Capital obligation | Ongoing spend — no asset created | Zero LOCKED |
| Year 2+ net | Disposal cost at 8.08% CAGR — accelerating | Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service — net surplus position |
| Critical minerals | Vanadium continues to be landfilled | V₂O₅ + Ni + Ga from Ras Tanura ash WARN-08 |
| MWAN contribution | None | 140,000 tpy full programme toward 2035 |
| Employment | No new FTE | 188 direct FTE full programme + 564 indirect ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled |
- At 8.08% CAGR, State A disposal cost increases by ~SAR 3.2M per year of delay (Phase Initial volume)
- V₂O₅ from Ras Tanura ash continues to be landfilled — Aramco VRFB supply chain remains import-dependent
- Forfeits one full year of Revenue Share (4-module scale)
State A — Current System Baseline
Nine-Stream Cost Structure All ESTIMATED — WARN-01
- SIRC subsidiary residuals: SAR 140–200/ton
- Ras Tanura petcoke ash: SAR 200–320/ton — industrial waste with vanadium designation, complex disposal
- ELT / tires: SAR 200–400/ton equivalent
- Contaminated recycling: SAR 140–180/ton
- Wastewater sludge: SAR 120–180/ton
- Blended FWDC: SAR 285/ton · $76/ton ESTIMATED ⚠ WARN-01
State A Cost Trajectory — FWDC at 2.5%/yr from SAR 285/ton (base), 8.08% CAGR volume growth
Note: 8.08% volume CAGR means the full State A cost burden compounds faster than price escalation alone. True State A cost trajectory materially exceeds the FWDC-only projection.
State B — Deployment Baseline
| Term | Phase Initial | Full Programme | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity | 100 TPD · 1 module | 400 TPD · 4 modules | LOCKED |
| Annual volume | 35,000 tpy | 140,000 tpy | LOCKED |
| Carbotura FDI | $55M | $220M | LOCKED |
| Revenue Share lag | 13 months rolling | ALWAYS | |
| T0 | Q4 2027 | ESTIMATED | |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2030 | ESTIMATED | |
| First Revenue Share | ~Q3 2031 | DERIVED | |
Delta Analysis
Year 1: Processing Service paid. Zero Revenue Share. 13-month pre-royalty period. Year 2+: Revenue Share exceeds Processing Service — net surplus. The 8.08% CAGR volume growth means the State A cost compounds rapidly; the State B surplus position improves comparatively each year.
FWDC Sensitivity
| FWDC | Year 1 gross displacement (Phase Initial) | Net Year 2+ surplus |
|---|---|---|
| SAR 220/ton | SAR 7,700,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged LOCKED |
| SAR 285/ton (base) | SAR 9,975,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged LOCKED |
| SAR 380/ton | SAR 13,300,000/yr ESTIMATED | Unchanged LOCKED |
Critical Minerals Delta (Option A-IC — ESTIMATED — WARN-08)
This section is conditional on WARN-08 engineering confirmation and ICO buyer LOI. Not incorporated into Option A base case. V₂O₅ figures are TBD pending petcoke ash analysis.
Ras Tanura V₂O₅ Stream (Aramco VRFB)
- Saudi Arabia imports 100% of its vanadium for the 110 GW VRFB programme
- Ras Tanura ash: nationally highest V₂O₅ density — 6× Jubail petcoke, 2× Yanbu YASREF/SAMREF (ESTIMATED)
- In-country premium: +15% ESTIMATED (import substitution + Aramco IKTVA credit)
- Aramco HQ (Dhahran) is 30 km from Ras Tanura — off-take confirmation timeline compressed by proximity
- Aramco-BYD JDA (April 2025) = structural vanadium demand anchor
- CANDIDATE — no LOI at registry lock. WARN-05 applies.
No-Fallback Position: In State A, Aramco's own petcoke ash vanadium continues to be landfilled. Saudi Arabia's VRFB programme for 110 GW renewable storage remains import-dependent for V₂O₅. The Aramco circular loop (refinery waste → VRFB manufacturing input) does not close. State B is the only pathway that closes this loop from within the existing Eastern Province industrial footprint.
System-Level Impact
Employment ESTIMATED — Nitaqat-labeled
| Phase | Modules | Direct FTE | Indirect FTE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 1 | 47 | 141 |
| Phase Medium | 2 | 94 | 282 |
| Full Programme | 4 | 188 | 564 |
Environmental Delta
| Metric | State A | Phase Initial | Full Programme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diversion from landfill | ~10% | 35,000 tpy | 140,000 tpy |
| Carbon avoidance | 0 | 532,900 tCO₂e/yr ESTIMATED | 532,900 tCO₂e/yr ESTIMATED |
| MWAN contribution | None | 35,000 tpy | 140,000 tpy |
| V₂O₅ produced domestically | None — landfilled | TBD — WARN-08 | TBD — WARN-08 |
Risk & Sensitivity
| # | Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | V₂O₅ concentration below commercial threshold at Ras Tanura | WARN-08 — engineering confirmation first. Option A base case does not include V₂O₅ — ACM carbon stream path is independent |
| 2 | 8.08% CAGR outpaces Phase Initial capacity | Phase Medium and Expanded modules absorb volume growth. T0 Q4 2027 timing preserves 3-year headroom before CAGR inflection |
| 3 | Aramco VRFB LOI timeline | WARN-08 resolves first; Aramco IKTVA supplier engagement then fast-tracks. Option A base case independent of LOI |
| 4 | Petcoke ash feedstock agreement (separate from SIRC CSA) | Parallel-track with CSA. WARN-08 confirmation prerequisite |
| 5 | Nitaqat compliance — Eastern Province context | Feasibility Study with HRSD — WARN-03 |