Executive Brief — Dammam / Eastern Province

Sharia-Structured Instrument Ijarah (manufacturing and processing service) + Musharakah (revenue participation in manufactured goods). Two independent transactions — never combined or netted. Formal Sharia Board review recommended prior to CSA execution.

Eight streams. 8.08% CAGR — fastest growth in the programme. Aramco's own petcoke ash → Aramco's own VRFB supply chain. 30 km from Dhahran HQ.

Opening

The Eastern Province generates an estimated 4,500 TPD baseline across eight material streams, growing at 8.08% CAGR — the fastest growth rate in the KSA programme, driven by Aramco expansion and downstream petrochemical investment. Ras Tanura petcoke ash (~120 TPD ESTIMATED) is Saudi Arabia's highest-vanadium ash source nationally, located 30 km from Aramco's Dhahran headquarters. Subject to WARN-08 engineering confirmation, this creates the programme's most strategically significant single in-country off-take relationship: Aramco petcoke ash → Carbotura V₂O₅ → Aramco VRFB supply chain for Saudi Arabia's 110 GW renewable energy programme.

Gap 1

MWAN Mandate + 8.08% CAGR

At 8.08% CAGR, the Eastern Province's waste volume compounds faster than any other region. State A disposal cost accelerates proportionally. No advanced processing infrastructure exists to handle this growth trajectory.

140,000 tpy MWAN contribution at full programme

Gap 2

Aramco Circular Loop — V₂O₅

Aramco petcoke generates vanadium-bearing ash that is currently landfilled. Aramco's 110 GW renewable programme requires V₂O₅ for grid-scale VRFBs. The loop does not close in State A. Subject to WARN-08.

0 domestic V₂O₅ production · 100% imported

Carbotura Phase Initial (100 TPD, Q2 2030 COD) initiates both gap closures simultaneously. WARN-08 engineering confirmation activates the Aramco VRFB loop.

The Decision

THIS BRIEF MODELS OPTION A — STANDARD ELECTION

Option A-IC (Aramco VRFB V₂O₅ — programme's highest-priority ICO relationship) requires WARN-08 engineering confirmation. WARN-08 must be resolved before any V₂O₅ figure appears in any client-facing document.

The Circular Supply Agreement authorises Carbotura to operate an Advanced Circular Manufacturing centre at MODON Eastern Province (Manufacturing Site Deed: MODON · CSA: Saudi Investment Recycling Company (SIRC), 100% PIF subsidiary). Two independent agreements. Ras Tanura petcoke ash requires a separate feedstock agreement independent of the SIRC CSA.

Processing Service (Ijarah): Authority pays for a manufacturing and processing service per ton processed — Year 1
Manufactured Goods Revenue Share (Musharakah): Authority receives a share of manufactured output revenue, 13 months after each corresponding Processing Service payment — from Month 14 onward
Zero capital obligation: Carbotura designs, finances, builds, owns, and operates. LOCKED.

Key Facts

Addressable streams	MSW residuals · ELT · Wastewater sludge · Ras Tanura petcoke ash · Contaminated recycling · ASR · Commercial · C&D fluff	LOCKED
Baseline TPD	4,500 TPD ESTIMATED · 8.08% CAGR	ESTIMATED
Ras Tanura petcoke ash	~120 TPD ESTIMATED — highest-vanadium ash nationally	WARN-08
Phase Initial	100 TPD · 35,000 tpy · 1 module	LOCKED
Full programme	400 TPD · 140,000 tpy · 4 modules	LOCKED
Carbotura FDI (Phase Initial)	$55M	LOCKED
Carbotura FDI (full programme)	$220M	LOCKED
Revenue Share lag	13 months rolling · independent transaction	ALWAYS
Capital obligation	Zero	LOCKED
T0	Q4 2027	ESTIMATED
Phase Initial COD	Q2 2030	ESTIMATED
First Revenue Share	~Q3 2031	DERIVED
Direct FTE (full programme)	188 Subject to Nitaqat compliance — ESTIMATED	ESTIMATED
Carbon avoidance (full programme)	532,900 tCO₂e/yr	ESTIMATED
MWAN contribution (full programme)	140,000 tpy toward 2035	ESTIMATED
V₂O₅ output	TBD — WARN-08 engineering confirmation required	WARN-08
Primary ICO buyers (CANDIDATE)	Saudi Aramco VRFB (V₂O₅) · Ma'aden · SABIC EP · NEOM OXAGON	CANDIDATE — WARN-08 for V₂O₅
Site counterparty	MODON (National Industrial Development Company)	LOCKED
CSA counterparty	Saudi Investment Recycling Company (SIRC) — 100% PIF subsidiary	LOCKED

What Delay Costs

Each 12-Month T0 Slip

At 8.08% CAGR, State A disposal cost increases approximately SAR 3.2M per year of delay — the fastest-compounding exposure in the programme
Ras Tanura V₂O₅ continues to be landfilled — Aramco VRFB supply chain remains import-dependent for another year
Ma'aden's critical minerals Phase 1 buildout proceeds without an Eastern Province circular-source input — primary mining dependency deepens
MWAN compliance window shortens against an accelerating volume base

Call to Action

Authorise the Authority Feasibility Study — the single action that preserves Q4 2027 T0.

The Feasibility Study resolves:

MODON Eastern Province actual gate rates (WARN-01)
MODON site land allocation
Ras Tanura petcoke ash sampling and vanadium concentration analysis — engineering confirmation (WARN-08)
Petcoke ash feedstock agreement engagement (separate from SIRC CSA)
Nitaqat tier with HRSD (WARN-03)
SABIC EP off-take engagement (carbon, no WARN-08) — first ICO track
Aramco VRFB LOI track — initiates after WARN-08 resolution

Authorization required by Q3 2027 to preserve Q4 2027 T0.

Contact: info[at]carbotura.com

Source Basis

Registry-dammam-v1 · SIRC (sirc.sa) · PIF (pif.gov.sa) · MODON (modon.gov.sa) · MWAN (mwan.gov.sa) · Saudi National Minerals Program 2025 · Springer Nature Vanadium in Petcoke Ash 2026 · Exchange-rates.org SAR/USD 3.75 May 2026. Financial projections: Carbotura Circular Advantage modeling, RC3 baseline. All figures ESTIMATED unless LOCKED. This document does not constitute a Sharia certification or sukuk prospectus.